Worrisome
Sign?
Have All the Recent
Comebacks Masked Starting Pitching Woes?
Kerry's Calculus for June 18, 2008
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Worrisome
Sign? |
Don't get me wrong--I've enjoyed the recent comeback wins, fueled by something of an offensive surge, as much as anyone. But with all the attention paid to the scrappy comebacks, I couldn't help but wonder if the recent extended poor collective performance by the Orioles' starting rotation has been overlooked.
From May 24 through last night's series opener with the Houston, the starters have done the following:
| Date | Opp. | Starter | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR |
| 24-May | @ TB | Trachsel | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 25-May | @ TB | Cabrera | 5.2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| 26-May | NYY | Olson* | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| 27-May | NYY | Burres | 3.2 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 28-May | NYY | Guthrie* | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 30-May | Bos | Cabrera* | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 31-May | Bos | Olson | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 1-Jun | Bos | Burres | 4 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2-Jun | Bos | Guthrie* | 6.1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 3-Jun | @ Min | Liz | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 4-Jun | @ Min | Cabrera | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5-Jun | @ Min | Olson* | 6.1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 6-Jun | @Tor | Burres | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 7-Jun | @Tor | Guthrie* | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 8-Jun | @Tor | Liz | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 10-Jun | @Bos | Cabrera | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 11-Jun | @Bos | Olson | 5.1 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 12-Jun | @Bos | Guthrie | 4.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| 13-Jun | Pit | Burres | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 14-Jun | Pit | Liz | 6.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 15-Jun | Pit | Cabrera | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 16-Jun | Hou | Olson | 4.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
*--indicates quality start
There have been only six quality starts in the last 22 games; the last one was Jeremy Guthrie's seven-inning stint in Toronto on June 7. Guthrie has half the team's quality starts since May 24; Olson has two and Cabrera has one. Since Guthrie's June 7 start, the Orioles have gone through the entire rotation 1 1/2 times without a quality start. Eight times in this span the starting pitcher hasn't worked past the fifth inning, putting significant strains on the bullpen which, overall, has managed to hold up relatively well despite being overworked. Guthrie's June 7 effort is the only time in the last 16 games that an O's starter has pitched through the seventh inning.
Here are the cumulative totals, spanning 22 starts:
| IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | HR/9 |
| 119.1 | 144 | 88 | 88 | 48 | 64 | 22 | 6.64 | 10.86 | 3.62 | 4.83 | 1.66 |
There's really nothing in these totals to be pleased with. The average start in this span has been slightly more than 5.1 innings. The hits are high (nearly 11 per nine innings), the ERA is untenable, the walks are too high and the strikeouts way too low. The home runs are also far too high, substantially increased by a recent string of six straight starts with at least one home run allowed (nine in six games, spanning just 33.1 IP).
What does all this mean? Beyond the obvious fact that the starting pitching has been generally lousy for the last 3 1/2 weeks, not necessarily anything. The starting pitching was (Steve Trachsel excepted) every bit as good for the first seven weeks of the season as it has been bad for the last 3 1/2; perhaps we're just witnessing a blip.
But before we canonize pitching coach Rick Kranitz, perhaps we should remember how well the team's starting rotation performed over the first few months of last season under the now-reviled Leo Mazzone prior to the staff's collective collapse over the second half of the season in 2007.