Kerry's Calculus

I thought it would be...let's see, how can I put this diplomatically?--instructive to see where things stand for the Orioles' offense.

Through last night's debacle here are the American League's basic team stats, presented alphabetically (because that's the only way the Orioles will finish on top):

Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	TB	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	SH	SF	BB	SO	HBP	GIDP	LOB
Baltimore	47	1610	201	424	89	7	34	191	.263	629	.330	.391	33	6	14	14	153	276	14	43	344
Boston	46	1569	244	435	95	9	49	233	.277	695	.360	.443	26	5	8	13	196	253	14	39	357
Chicago	43	1419	178	329	55	2	47	173	.232	529	.308	.373	19	8	12	13	149	252	13	39	281
Cleveland	45	1562	253	424	84	8	52	245	.271	680	.355	.435	27	8	2	14	186	343	23	29	346
Detroit	46	1623	260	451	111	13	57	250	.278	759	.343	.468	20	12	6	12	154	285	13	32	317
Kansas City	48	1646	201	423	89	16	37	192	.257	655	.330	.398	24	11	7	11	152	332	33	47	349
Los Angeles	48	1620	218	440	89	6	36	197	.272	649	.326	.401	41	11	8	16	125	232	13	46	312
Miinnesota	46	1586	209	427	86	6	35	197	.269	630	.334	.397	34	7	11	9	141	241	18	42	320
New York	45	1572	244	436	87	6	51	233	.277	688	.355	.438	26	11	10	14	176	262	22	41	349
Oakland	46	1591	208	404	74	5	45	202	.254	623	.337	.392	18	8	4	12	189	311	17	49	351
Seattle	43	1485	197	406	74	5	41	188	.273	613	.326	.413	23	9	2	6	103	201	16	39	290
Tampa Bay	46	1585	209	408	69	10	55	196	.257	662	.325	.418	39	21	6	8	148	372	14	34	319
Texas	47	1600	235	404	90	7	65	228	.253	703	.319	.439	35	8	11	12	152	346	10	34	298
Toronto	46	1573	208	401	97	6	55	199	.255	675	.328	.429	16	8	4	11	159	321	17	30	331
AL Totals	642	22041	3065	5812	1189	106	659	2924	.264	9190	.337	.417	381	133	105	165	2183	4027	237	544	4564
AL Average	46	1574	219	415	85	8	47	209	.264	656	.337	.417	27	10	8	12	156	288	17	39	326

The Orioles are 12th in the AL in runs per game at 4.28 tallies per contest. The average team in the league is scoring 4.77 runs per game. Only Kansas City (4.19) and Chicago (4.14) are worse than the Orioles. A week ago the White Sox were more than 1/3 of a run per game behind the Orioles. They've cut that margin more than in half. In another week or two the Orioles may well be battling only the Royals to stay out of the cellar. At their present pace, the Orioles would score 693 runs this year. That's 80 runs below the projected AL average of 773.

The Orioles are eighth in the league in batting average at .263, very close to the league's .264 mark.

The team's OBP is also eighth in the league, a fraction of a point behind Kansas City. While the ranking is in line with the team's batting average, the actual OBP mark isn't. It's .007 below the league average of .337. This is because the AL currently sports a huge disparity between the top and bottom of the league in terms of walk rate. Boston (4.26), Cleveland (4.13) and Oakland (4.11) are all drawing better than four walks per game. New York (3.91) is just below. Seattle (2.40) and Los Angeles (2.60) are miles behind; the Mariners are on pace to draw approximately 300 fewer walks than the Red Sox this year. The Orioles rank eighth in the league in walk rate at 3.26 per game; the league average is 3.40. But things are slightly worse than they appear by this measure. In terms of walks per plate appearance, the Orioles are ninth--0.0848 walks per PA, just a hair head of 10th place Tampa Bay. The reason for the disparity is the number of extra innings the Orioles have played this year relative to the other teams in the league. (The AL average, by the way, is 0.0883.)

Still, while the BA and OBP marks are nothing to jump up and down with glea about, they're not the main source of the overall offense problem. The walk rate is a problem to some degree, but the lack of power--specifically home runs--is the big problem. Why do I say that? Because...

The Orioles are averaging 1.89 doubles per game, slightly above the league average of 1.85. The Orioles actually rank sixth in the league in their rate of doubles, which is noteworthy particularly in light of the fact that they play in a notoriously difficult ballpark in which to double (historically speaking). Hitting doubles hasn't been a major problem for the Orioles this year.

Triples--particularly given how terrible a triples park OPCY is--aren't an issue either. The Orioles have seven; the average AL team has eight.

The Orioles are 14th--dead last--in the AL in home runs per game...and in home runs period. They have 34 home runs in 47 games despite cracking two yesterday. The Angels have 36 in 48 games; Minnesota has 35 in 46 games. The average AL team has 47 home runs in 46 games. The Orioles are on pace to hit 117 home runs this year. The average team in the league will hit 166 at the current pace. That's a huge disparity and accounts--with expected men on base for some of those home runs--for essentially all of the projected 80-run shortfall the Orioles are currently on pace to suffer relative to the end-of-year AL average.

This is the reason that the Orioles have been a terrible offensive team this year instead of a merely mediocre one.

There are a couple of other minor points worth noting. Despite a below league average OBP, the Orioles have left an above league average number of men on base this year. The Orioles have left 7.32 men on base per game this year; the AL average is 7.11. Only four teams have left more on base per game and three of those (Yankees, Indians and Red Sox) are scoring at least one run per game more than the Orioles. This high LOB mark despite the mediocre OBP is consistent with the lack of home runs; it's also probably slightly inflated by the extra innings the team has played.

The O's are grounding into a higher than league average number of double plays per game as well--0.9149 per game (league average: 0.8474). Only three teams have grounded into more double plays than the Orioles (and it ain't the high scoring trio mentioned in the LOB paragraph). It's a pretty good trick to be among the league leaders in LOB and GIDP (an ignominious distinction that Oakland also shares thus far this season).

The Orioles are also a bit above the league average in the stolen base category. The Orioles are 33 of 39 stealing bases (approximately 85%). The league average team is 27 of 37 (73%).

In all, it's a grim picture. The Orioles are doing almost nothing well, and are doing a lot quite badly, most notably ranking as the worst home run team in the league.