The Stats That Matter Most (June 28, 2008)
Many moons ago, trendsetting sabermetrician Bill James demonstrated a relationship between runs scored, runs allowed and wins which, because of the necessity of squaring the elements, he dubbed the Pythagorean Theorem (of baseball). The formula is that the square of runs scored divided by the sum of the square of runs scored and the square of runs allowed equals a team's expected winning percentage. From there, you simply multiply the winning percentage and games played and you have a projected win total. The measure works remarkably well, and, obviously, the more games a team plays, the better the relationship ordinarily is.
Here are the numbers through games of June 27:
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AMERICAN LEAGUE |
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| Team | R | OR | R DIFF | G | R/G | OR/G | DIFF/G | PW% | EXP W | ACT W | W DIFF |
| Baltimore Orioles | 353 | 363 | -10 | 79 | 4.47 | 4.59 | -0.13 | .486 | 38 | 40 | 2 |
| Boston Red Sox | 412 | 337 | 75 | 82 | 5.02 | 4.11 | 0.91 | .599 | 49 | 50 | 1 |
| Chicago White Sox | 385 | 305 | 80 | 80 | 4.81 | 3.81 | 1.00 | .614 | 49 | 44 | -5 |
| Cleveland Indians | 356 | 336 | 20 | 80 | 4.45 | 4.20 | 0.25 | .529 | 42 | 37 | -5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 382 | 380 | 2 | 79 | 4.84 | 4.81 | 0.03 | .503 | 40 | 39 | -1 |
| Kansas City Royals | 328 | 368 | -40 | 80 | 4.10 | 4.60 | -0.50 | .443 | 35 | 37 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 339 | 327 | 12 | 80 | 4.24 | 4.09 | 0.15 | .518 | 41 | 48 | 7 |
| Minnesota Twins | 388 | 380 | 8 | 80 | 4.85 | 4.75 | 0.10 | .510 | 41 | 44 | 3 |
| New York Yankees | 381 | 359 | 22 | 80 | 4.76 | 4.49 | 0.28 | .530 | 42 | 43 | 1 |
| Oakland Athletics | 356 | 286 | 70 | 79 | 4.51 | 3.62 | 0.89 | .608 | 48 | 44 | -4 |
| Seattle Mariners | 318 | 386 | -68 | 79 | 4.03 | 4.89 | -0.86 | .404 | 32 | 29 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 375 | 320 | 55 | 79 | 4.75 | 4.05 | 0.70 | .579 | 46 | 48 | 2 |
| Texas Rangers | 445 | 458 | -13 | 81 | 5.49 | 5.65 | -0.16 | .486 | 39 | 41 | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 334 | 311 | 23 | 81 | 4.12 | 3.84 | 0.28 | .536 | 43 | 38 | -5 |
| 5152 | 4916 | 236 | 560 | 4.60 | 4.39 | ||||||
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | |||||||||||
| Team | R | OR | R DIFF | G | R/G | OR/G | DIFF/G | PW% | EXP W | ACT W | W DIFF |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 357 | 353 | 4 | 80 | 4.46 | 4.41 | 0.05 | .506 | 40 | 40 | 0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 369 | 324 | 45 | 81 | 4.56 | 4.00 | 0.56 | .565 | 46 | 40 | -6 |
| Chicago Cubs | 437 | 338 | 99 | 80 | 5.46 | 4.23 | 1.24 | .626 | 50 | 49 | -1 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 339 | 406 | -67 | 81 | 4.19 | 5.01 | -0.83 | .411 | 33 | 36 | 3 |
| Colorado Rockies | 332 | 406 | -74 | 80 | 4.15 | 5.08 | -0.93 | .401 | 32 | 32 | 0 |
| Florida Marlins | 379 | 394 | -15 | 79 | 4.80 | 4.99 | -0.19 | .481 | 38 | 41 | 3 |
| Houston Astros | 346 | 383 | -37 | 80 | 4.33 | 4.79 | -0.46 | .449 | 36 | 37 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 330 | 327 | 3 | 79 | 4.18 | 4.14 | 0.04 | .505 | 40 | 37 | -3 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 359 | 360 | -1 | 79 | 4.54 | 4.56 | -0.01 | .499 | 39 | 43 | 4 |
| New York Mets | 373 | 375 | -2 | 79 | 4.72 | 4.75 | -0.03 | .497 | 39 | 39 | 0 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 411 | 337 | 74 | 81 | 5.07 | 4.16 | 0.91 | .598 | 48 | 43 | -5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 387 | 439 | -52 | 79 | 4.90 | 5.56 | -0.66 | .437 | 35 | 37 | 2 |
| San Diego Padres | 298 | 377 | -79 | 81 | 3.68 | 4.65 | -0.98 | .385 | 31 | 32 | 1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 323 | 371 | -48 | 80 | 4.04 | 4.64 | -0.60 | .431 | 34 | 34 | 0 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 374 | 353 | 21 | 81 | 4.62 | 4.36 | 0.26 | .529 | 43 | 45 | 2 |
| Washington Nationals | 296 | 403 | -107 | 81 | 3.65 | 4.98 | -1.32 | .350 | 28 | 32 | 4 |
| 5710 | 5946 | -236 | 641 | 4.46 | 4.64 |
Orioles Comments: When it comes to the bottom line, nothing has really changed for the Orioles since the last STMM (mid-May); the Orioles are +2 in WDIFF (they had been +1) and are still a couple games above .500 in the standings despite a slightly below break even RDIFF.
Offensively, the Orioles have picked it up a bit, moving from 4.07 R/G (11th in the AL) to 4.47 (9th) in roughly six weeks. (Only .06 R/G separates 8th from 10th in the AL at this stage.) Much of the O's offensive gains comes from the AL's rising tide lifting all boats; the league overall is scoring a quarter of a run more game now than it was in mid-May, but by no means all of it. Over the last six weeks, AL teams averaged 4.86 runs per game compared with 4.35 during the season's first segment (i.e. roughly a half a run per game more in the season's second segment than the first). The Orioles, meanwhile, scored 4.89 runs per game in the second segment--almost exactly the league average--after averaging just 4.07 R/G in the first segment. The improvement of more than 4/5 of a run per game is significantly above the overall league increase.
Unfortunately for the Orioles, the offensive improvement has been essentially canceled by the slippage in runs allowed. The Orioles currently rank ninth (.01 from tenth) in runs allowed per game at 4.57; they were sixth, 4.24, in mid-May. While there has been some increase in runs allowed in the AL over the past six weeks (the prevalence of interleague play during the season's second segment has had a huge impact on overall performance; the dominance of the AL--see below for more on this--has made natural assumptions about rising/dropping run performance invalid), the league-wide rise pales in comparison with that of the Orioles. During the first segment of the season, prior to the start of interleague play, the average American League team allowed 4.35 runs per game. During the second, interleague-dominated segment of the season, the average AL team surrendered an average of 4.43 runs per game, a slight increase. The Orioles, however, allowed 4.97 runs per game in the second segment, almost 3/4 of a run per game more than the first segment, essentially canceling out the better-than-league average improvement in the runs scored category.
A Note on Interleague Play: For the umpteenth straight year, the American League is thoroughly dominating the National League in interleague play. With two days (28 games) remaining in the series, the American League is 135-88 (.605), with a run differential of +236. It's astonishing how much better than the NL the AL is. Kansas City, for instance, has used interleague play over the past couple of weeks (winning 11 of their last 12 games, all against NL teams) to push back within six games of the .500 mark.
AL Comments: Only four AL teams have a negative run differential; the Orioles (-10) are one of them with the worst mark, by a substantial margin, in the East.
There are some fairly significant negative WDIFFs in the AL thus far. Chicago, Cleveland and Toronto are all -5 with Oakland at -4; the White Sox have the top RDIFF in the American League (+80). The only substantial positive WDIFF is a whopper: the Los Angeles Angels are +7. Coupled with the A's -4, there's an 11-game swing going on in the AL West right now, in the Angels' favor. The Angels' +12 RDIFF is just the eighth best mark in the league.
The Mariners have been, by far, the worst team in the AL, with the recent Royals resurgence.
The Rays really have been essentially that good; their WDIFF is a more or less irrelevant +2.
The Rangers' league-worst OR/G mark is almost 3/4 of a run worse than that of the 13th ranked team (the Mariners). Lucky for Texas that the club's league-best R/G mark is almost a half run better than the number two team (Boston). Reminds me of the early-1990s Detroit Tigers.
NL Comments: Philadelphia and Atlanta--two East teams--have the largest negative WDIFFs in the league at -5 and -6 respectively. The Braves have had an absurdly bad record in one-run games all year (currently 4-20), accounting for their disparity. The Phillies haven't played particularly well in one-run games (13-16), but nothing like the Braves.
The highest positive WDIFF marks (+4) are held by Milwaukee and Washington. The Nationals (-107) have played, hands down, the worst baseball in either league this year. They're dead last in R/G and 13th in the 16-team NL in OR/G.
The Cubs have the best RDIFF in baseball at +99, but in true NL form, are below .500 in interleague play. Only three NL teams have winning records in interleague play and none are better than 8-5 at present. 11 of the 14 AL teams currently have winning interleague records.
The second best RDIFF in the Central is held by the Cardinals (+21).
The best team in the West is Arizona--a paltry +4 in RDIFF and a dead even record (40-40).