I'll be the first person to admit that, to date this season, the Orioles have exceeded my expectations...by a wide margin.  Prior to the start of the season, I figured that the Orioles would most likely lose somewhere in the neighborhood of 95-100 games in 2008.  This isn't to say that I couldn't imagine plausible scenarios in which the team would lose somewhat fewer--or somewhat more--games, but I thought that the mid- to upper-90s was a pretty reasonable guess.

The Orioles entered Sunday's game at Milwaukee with a 38-35 record.  Even if the Orioles do the expected and invoke their Can't Win On Sunday To Save Our Lives theme (Patent Pending), they'll be 38-36 with 88 games left in the season.  For them to finish in the range I anticipated pre-season, they'd have to crash and burn in truly spectacular fashion, losing roughly 60 (or more) of their remaining contests.  In effect, they'd have to play .315 ball for the remainder of the season.  Now, this isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility.  We've seen this team sh*tcan multiple times during the back end of seasons in recent years.  In some respects, it would be totally in character for the Orioles to invoke their Go Completely in the Tank in the Second Half of the Season charter (Patent Pending), stink to high heaven from this point on and finish with an upper 90s loss total.

However, I'm going to cross my fingers, toss some salt over my shoulder and spit several times...and guess that it won't happen this year.

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There's been an interesting thread on the Birdseed message board lately, dealing with the question of what the Orioles should do, personnel-wise, at this point, given the much better-than-expected performance of the team to date and the non-waiver trade deadline, which will be upon us in 5 1/2 weeks.

I don't believe anyone is advocating making a push to "win this year."  That non-option is easily dispensed with.  Even if you believe that the Orioles' current level of play is sustainable for the rest of the season--a debatable point, I'd argue--I don't think anyone has mistaken the club's competitive performance to date with a contending resume'.  Even if the Orioles can keep up their slightly above .500 level of play, it won't be enough to get them into the postseason.  Certainly not in the American League East .

I think just about everyone, including team president Andy MacPhail, understands this.  There have been clear signs in recent weeks that even this .500 level of play is in serious jeopardy.  The general slippage of the starting rotation has dragged the overall pitching performance of the team down significantly.  The Orioles spent most of the first two months of the season ranked fifth or sixth in the AL in runs allowed; they entered Sundays' action ranked ninth, with a good deal of distance between themselves and the eighth slot and only a small cushion separating them from tenth.  It all makes sense; as the starting rotation's performance--in terms of runs prevented and innings pitched per start--continues to slide (including Sunday, the Orioles have managed only eight quality starts in their last 27 games), the bullpen receives more work and, almost by implication, added labor falls on the shoulders of the pitchers that the team least wants to use:  the 12th and 13th men on the staff.

It's going to be very difficult for the Orioles to keep up their present winning percentage without a major improvement, pretty much across the board, from the starting rotation.  And, as noted above,  even if they continue to perform at a level at or near the status quo ante, that's not likely to result in a contending record.  The Orioles end the weekend with the third worst run differential in the American League--only Kansas City and Seattle are worse.  It is highly doubtful that this level of performance would result in a contending record at year's end, particularly in the hyper-competitive AL East.

Teams overrate aberrant performances at their peril; tip a glance at this year's Seattle Mariners if you want to see something close to a single season worst case scenario of so doing.  Take a look at the Orioles of the past decade to see a true extended, worst case example of what can happen if a franchise insists on misreading this situation year after year.

I'm confident that, "throw the team under the bus" comments to the contrary notwithstanding, Andy MacPhail understands this.

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So what happens next?  Onward and upward, right?  The rebuilding plan continues apace.  Veterans with contracts expiring in the next couple of years--a statement that applies to roughly 80% of the position players of consequence on the current major league roster--should be shopped, with the goal being to trade them for young players in other organizations with some professional experience, obvious upside and good odds to be contributing major league players.  Right?

Well, of course.

But I think it's fair to muse a bit on the likelihood of this playing out.  After all, with few exceptions, there aren't incumbent replacements for many of the current position players the above scenario describes.  And, at least right now, the trading deadline sweepstakes appears to be a buyer's market.

When it comes to position players, like Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, etc., all of whom have contracts that expire at the end of the 2009 season, of course they should be available, but with the possible of exception of someone like Jay Payton (whose contract is up at the end of this season), I wouldn't simply deal any of these players for anyone at all.  There's no point dumping someone like Kevin Millar--another player whose contract is up at the end of this season, but who is starting for the Orioles at first base--for a B prospect or two.  A "B" prospect is a player who has a modest chance of ever becoming a big league player of significance.  For players who actually have some real value--and, believe it or not, that describes most of the players on the Orioles roster right now--there's simply no point in not getting players of likely consequence in return for any possible trade.  Millar, just to use an example, is no star player; he's no better than an average starting major league first baseman (he's probably a modestly below average one, in fact), but that's still of more value to the Orioles than a B prospect or two.  Millar is, in my estimation, of more value to the Orioles right now--given that they have no real replacement for him--than a couple of B prospects.  He's not blocking anyone--neither is any other Oriole position player.  Why move him for what amounts to nothing?

The Orioles have no use for B prospects right now and they have to do what's necessary to get something more than that.  If that means packaging multiple veterans to get them, fine.  If it means moving veterans and some pitching prospects in a package, fine.  If it means moving exclusively pitching prospects--something the team has an overabundance of at the moment--fine.  But the point is, what the Orioles must do--be it at the trading deadline or during the coming off-season or both--is what's necessary to procure young position players from other organizations who have a legitimate chance to develop into impact major league players.  They don't necessarily have to be projected as future superstars (though that would be nice of course); they do, however, have to look like likely average major league starters, at worst.

And the position players--and, for the most part, pitchers--on the current big league roster who can't generate that kind of return, either by themselves or en masse?  They shouldn't be dealt at all.  These players may not be world beaters and they may be overpaid, but they're not worthless and they're better than the alternative...and, at this point, if that means that they stay with the Orioles, then I say, so be it.

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