Kerry's Calculus

The handwriting was on the wall, I'd say, by the time Tony DeMacio and crew prepared for the 2002 Amateur Draft. The first three DeMacio drafts had shaped up to be, on balance, anywhere from somewhat less than mediocre to miserable. It's still fairly early to provide anything approaching a final analysis to a draft that took place less than 2 1/2 years ago, but we can get a sense of where things are headed by taking a look at where things currently stand.

The Orioles had only one 2002 first round pick (including supplementals), but the pick they had, finally, was a very high one--the fourth overall selection. The Orioles had managed to secure plenty of first round selections in the three previous drafts, but none had been in the coveted top four.

Round	Overall	Player Name	Pos	Drafted From	High Level	2004
1	4	Adam Loewen	P	Fraser Valley Christian (Surrey,BC) - High School	A	Low A
2	45	Corey Shafer	C	Choctaw (Choctaw,OK) - High School	A	Low A
3	76	Val Majewski	OF	Rutgers University	MLB	MLB
4	106	Tim Gilhooly	OF	University of the Pacific	A	DNP
5	136	Hayden Penn	P	Santana (Santee,CA) - High School	AA	AA
6	166	John Maine	P	University of North Carolina	MLB	MLB
7	196	Paul Henry	P	Ball State University	A	High A
8	226	Ryan Hubele	C	University of Texas	A	High A
9	256	Trevor Caughey	P	Cuesta College	A	High A
10	286	Matt Bolander	P	Pendleton Heights (Pendleton,IN) - High School	Rookie	DNP
11	316	Mark Mccormick		Clear Creek (League City,TX) - High School	College	DNP
12	346	Brandon Fahey	SS-3B	University of Texas	AA	AA
13	376	Mike Huggins	IF	Baylor University	AA	AA
14	406	Matthew Rohr	P	California State University, San Bernardino	Ind	DNP
15	436	Matthew Howerton	OF	Riverdale (Fort Myers,FL) - High School	Rookie	DNP
16	466	Gerardo Alvarez	IF	Texas Tech University	A	High A
17	496	Neal Stephenson	OF	Texas A&M University	A	DNP
18	526	Carl Makowsky	P	Northwestern State University	Ind	DNP
19	556	Mike Patitucci	P	Oklahoma State University	A	Low A
20	586	George Cox	C	University of Central Florida	A	DNP
21	616	Gregg Davies	OF	Towson University	A	High A
22	646	Steve Sutton	P	University of Central Florida	-	DNP
23	676	Jason Cierlik	P	Minnesota State University Mankato	Ind	DNP
24	706	Ryan Soehlig		University of North Florida	College	DNP
25	736	Tim Thurman	1B	Cal Poly	Rookie	DNP
26	766	Erik Smallwood	OF	University of South Alabama	Ind	DNP
27	796	Antoan Richardson	CF	Palm Beach Community College	-	DNP
28	826	Zach Davis	OF	J A Fair (Little Rock,Ark) - High School	Rookie	Rookie
29	856	Edward Colbert	OF	Catonsville Community College	A	DNP
30	886	Mel Spivey	P	University of South Alabama	Ind	DNP
31	916	Justin Nash	P	Penn State University	Rookie	DNP
32	946	Whitney Robinson-Pierce	C	Cuesta College	A	Low A
33	976	Ryan Childs		Clemson University	AAA	AAA
34	1006	Levi Robinson	IF	Texas Christian University	A	High A
35	1036	Nick Mccurdy	P	Oklahoma State University	A	High A
36	1066	Jordan Compton	P	Haysi (Bee,Va) - High School	-	DNP
37	1096	Russell Petrick	P	Bellevue Community College (WA)	A	Low A
38	1126	Alex Muszynski	1B	Alpena (Mich) - High School	-	DNP
39	1156	Henry Lozado	P	Adolfina Irizarry De Puig (Toa Baja,PR) - High School	Rookie	Rookie
40	1186	Steven Guerra	P	Paso Robles (Paso Robles,CA) - High School	-	DNP
41	1216	Chuck White	C	Overlea (Baltimore,MD) - High School	-	DNP
42	1246	Barry Roe	P	Heath (Ohio) - High School	-	DNP
43	1276	Randy Youtsey	2B	Coolidge (Coolidge,AZ) - High School	-	DNP
44	1304	Brad Wiggins	OF	Arlington Heights (Fort Worth,TX) - High School	Rookie	Rookie
45	1332	Jim Cooney	P	Florida Atlantic University	Ind	DNP
46	1359	David Mittelberger	P	Righetti (Santa Maria,CA) - High School	-	DNP
47	1385	Andre Psaradelis	CF	Bellevue Community College (WA)	-	DNP
48	1411	Mark Wahl	C	University of Dayton	Rookie	DNP
49	1437	Gabe Somarriba		Florida Atlantic University	College	DNP
50	1461	Lawrence Ponder	P	Lee Scott Academy (Auburn,AL) - High School	-	DNP

This may turn out to be the most successful draft during DeMacio's now severed tenure. Beyond Adam Loewen, who the Orioles waited a year to sign, on the eve of the 2003 draft, Val Majewski and John Maine, later picks, have both already had a cup of coffee with the big club and Hayden Penn has reached AA, and will probably start the 2005 season there. We'll check in with all of these players below.

The First Round
For reasons expressed in the first installment of this series, the central focus of each draft analysis will be on the first round. Before we take a close look at each of the Orioles' first round selections, it will be instructive, for reference purposes, to take a look at the entire first round.

Rank	Player Name	Pos.	Drafted By	School	High Lv	MLB Years
1	Bryan Bullington	P	Pittsburgh Pirates	Ball State University	AA
2	B.J. Upton	SS	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Greenbrier Christian Academy (Chesapeake,VA)	MLB	2004-2004
3	Christopher Gruler	P	Cincinnati Reds	Liberty (Brentwood,CA)	A
4	Adam Loewen	P	Baltimore Orioles	Fraser Valley Christian (Surrey,BC)	A
5	Clint Everts	P	Montreal Expos	Cypress Falls (Houston)	A
6	Zack Greinke	P	Kansas City Royals	Apoka (Apopka,FL)	MLB	2004-2004
7	Prince Fielder	1B	Milwaukee Brewers	Eau Gallie (Melbourne,FL)	AA
8	Scott Moore	SS	Detroit Tigers	Cypress (Cypress,CA)	A
9	Jeff Francis	P	Colorado Rockies	University of Lethbridge	MLB	2004-2004
10	Drew Meyer	SS	Texas Rangers	University of South Carolina	AA
11	Jeremy Hermida	OF	Florida Marlins	Wheeler (Marietta,GA)	AAA
12	Joe Saunders	P	Anaheim Angels	Virginia Tech	AA
13	Khalil Greene	SS	San Diego Padres	Clemson University	MLB	2003-2004
14	Russ Adams	SS	Toronto Blue Jays	University of North Carolina	MLB	2004-2004
15	Scott Kazmir	P	New York Mets	Cypress Falls (Houston)	MLB	2004-2004
16	Nick Swisher	OF	Oakland Athletics	Ohio State University	MLB	2004-2004
17	Cole Hamels	P	Philadelphia Phillies	Rancho Bernardo (San Diego,CA)	A
18	Roger Ring	P	Chicago White Sox	San Diego State University	-
19	James Loney	1B	Los Angeles Dodgers	Elkins (Missouri City,TX)	AA
20	Denard Span	OF	Minnesota Twins	Catholic (Tampa,FL)	A
21	Bobby Brownlie		Chicago Cubs	Rutgers University	AA
22	Jeremy Guthrie	P	Cleveland Indians	Stanford University	MLB	2004-2004
23	Jeff Francoeur	OF	Atlanta Braves	Parkview (Liburn,GA)	AA
24	Joe Blanton	P	Oakland Athletics	University of Kentucky	MLB	2004-2004
25	Matthew Cain	P	San Francisco Giants	Houston (Germantown,TN)	AA
26	John McCurdy	IF	Oakland Athletics	University of Maryland	AA
27	Sergio Santos	SS	Arizona Diamondbacks	Mater Dei (Santa Ana,CA)	AA
28	John Mayberry	H	Seattle Mariners	Rockhurst (Kansas City,MO)	College
29	Derick Grigsby	P	Houston Astros	Northeast Texas Community College	A
30	Ben Fritz	P	Oakland Athletics	Fresno State University	Ind
31	Greg Miller	P	Los Angeles Dodgers	Esperanza (Anaheim,CA)	AAA
32	Luke Hagerty	P	Chicago Cubs	Ball State University	A
33	Matt Whitney	3B	Cleveland Indians	Palm Beach Gardens (Palm Beach Gardens,FL)	A
34	Dan Meyer	P	Atlanta Braves	James Madison University	MLB	2004-2004
35	Jeremy Brown	C	Oakland Athletics	University of Alabama	AA
36	Chadd Blasko		Chicago Cubs	Purdue University	AA
37	Stephen Obenchain	P	Oakland Athletics	University of Evansville	A
38	Matthew Clanton	P	Chicago Cubs	Orange County Community College	A
39	Mark Teahen	3B	Oakland Athletics	St. Mary's Collegiate	AAA
40	Mark Schramek	P	Cincinnati Reds	University of Texas	AA
41	Micah Schilling	2B	Cleveland Indians	Sillman Institute	A

After less than three full seasons, 10 of the 41 players (supplemental selections included) have reached the big leagues. San Diego's Khalil Greene finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. B.J. Upton was recalled by the Devil Rays mid-season and is expected to be in the club's starting lineup next season. Zack Greinke, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher and Zach Day are all likely to play significant roles with their big league teams out of spring training next year.

It's still too soon to judge this round, but it's looking like a pretty decent crop at this stage of the game.

Orioles First Round
The Orioles had one first round pick in 2002--pitcher Adam Loewen.

This may turn out to be the biggest screw up in recent Orioles' drafting history, and not much (if any) of the blame can be laid at DeMacio's feet. If DeMacio is to be blamed, it's for selecting a high school pitcher to begin with. We've seen in past analyses that high school pitchers are exceptionally susceptible to serious injury and very, very seldom pan out at a level one would hope high level picks would achieve.

But the biggest hang up with the Loewen draft pick is that the club waited until nearly a year after the selection was made to sign Loewen in the first place, largely wasting a year of organizational development. Then, after making seven starts in 2003, Loewen put forth a non-descript performance in 21 appearances for Delmarva and Frederick in 2004 before being shut down for the year with a slight tear in the labrum of his left (pitching) shoulder. Loewen, it has been decided, doesn't need surgery, but he is just the latest in a long, troubling history of Orioles first round pitchers with serious arm injuries. Perhaps Loewen can overcome this problem; pitchers have been able to perform despite slight labrum tears in their pitching shoulders (Sidney Ponson is one), but for a young pitcher to have such a potentially serious injury at such a young age can't be a good thing. The 2005 season should provide evidence of whether Loewen is able to progress or if he will follow in the ignominious footsteps of Beau Hale, Josh Cenate and Chris Smith.

The Orioles have simply had too many first round picks bomb out completely to absorb another, particularly a #4 choice.

Players of Note from Later Rounds
There are some players to watch here. The most noteworthy has to be John Maine, whose meteoric rise through the Orioles' minor league system hit a bit of a bump. Maine, a sixth round selection (the 166th choice overall) from the University of North Carolina, was lights out in five starts at Bowie and was then promoted to Ottawa. (He made a single appearance with the Orioles.) He struggled in the International League, but gradually seemed to find his footing as the season wore on. He is definitely a pitcher to keep one's eyes on; he will likely open the 2005 season at Ottawa, but could pitch his way onto the big club's staff in spring training, as Erik Bedard did last year. Even if he doesn't, if he makes a full adjustment to AAA, he will force his way onto the Orioles roster. Stay tuned.

Outfielder Val Majewski rode a series of injuries to Orioles outfielders into a cup of coffee on the major league roster in 2004. Majewski, drafted in the third round (76th overall), has intrigued Baltimore, but that's a function of the team's bare cupboard in terms of organizational position players as much as it is of Majewski's performance. Majewski has shown the ability to hit for a strong batting average in the minor leagues, but his power and on-base abilities have been subpar. For him to be anything but a major league spare part, he'll have to significantly pick up at least one part of his offensive game.

The other player to keep at least one eye on is Hayden Penn, the club's fifth round selection (136th overall). Penn pitched at Delmarva, Frederick and Bowie in 2004 and will probably open 2005 at AA. Penn can pitch his way into the Orioles' long-term plans with an effective season in 2005. His progress has been noteworthy precisely because it was so unexpected; 2004 was his first full season of pro ball and two promotions was heady stuff. Penn must solidify that progress by building on his 2004 success at the two A-ball stops, but if he can duplicate that at Bowie in 2005, he will be a significant factor on the club's organizational depth chart.

Second round pick Corey Shafer, a catcher, has yet to play in a full-season league. Given the team's problems at this position, Shafer's lack of assignments out of spring training speak volumes.

Outfielder Tim Gilhooly, the fourth round choice, is out of the organization, and didn't play anywhere in 2004.

No one else is on pace to even reach the big leagues, though it's almost certain that someone will, for a cup of coffee, if nothing else.

2002 Draft Assessment
Not bad, overall. Two players have already reached the big leagues and Penn's a possible third member of that group. John Maine appears the most likely of the three (with Penn and Majewski the other two) to have an impact as a big leaguer.

But the shadow being cast over this draft is the status of Loewen. It's bad enough that the Orioles have had such little production out of a player drafted with the fourth overall pick; the most worrisome aspect of this selection is its place in a continuing trend of first round pitching selections to develop serious arm injuries.

First round choices, as we have seen, often don't pan out. But a string of injuries that short-circuit the careers of first round selections almost before they begin is devastating to an organization's ability to develop its own major league caliber players. What exactly has caused this rash of injuries is uncertain, but it's been too consistent a problem to ignore. Franchises simply can't afford to essentially flush their first round picks down the toilet year after year after year.