All the recent discussion on the Belfry message board about prospect ratings, speculation about organizational pitching depth and comments about injuries to young pitchers spurred  me  to take a look back at high round pitching draftees over the past couple of decades.

Just for fun, let's look at the O's record drafting pitchers in the first three rounds since 1990.  It's not pretty.  And if you're wondering why the Orioles have done so poorly over the last decade-plus, take a good hard look at what follows.

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1990 (all college pitchers)
First Round:  Mike Mussina (star caliber big leaguer)
Second Round:  Eric Schullstrom (cup of coffee)
Second Round:  Jeff Williams (failed to reach bigs)

1991
no pitchers drafted in first three rounds

1992 (college pitcher)
Second Round:  Brian Sackinsky (cup of coffee)

1993 (all college pitchers)
First Round:  Jay Powell (contributing big leaguer)
Third Round:  Jimmy Walker (failed to reach bigs)

1994 (high school pitcher)
Third Round:  Roger Worley (failed to reach bigs)

1995 (college pitcher)
First Round:  Alvie Shepherd (failed to reach bigs)

1996 (high school pitcher)
Second Round:  Brian Falkenborg (journeyman)

1997 (high school pitchers)
Second Round:  Sean Douglass (journeyman)
Third Round:  Matt Riley (journeyman)

1998 (high school pitchers)
Second Round:  Ben Knapp (failed to reach bigs)
Second Round:  Alex Hart (didn't sign; ultimately drafted out of college by Pirates, failed to reach bigs)
Third Round:  Steve Bechler (tragic cup of coffee)

1999
First Round:  Mike Paradis (college, failed to reach bigs)
First Round:  Richard Stahl (high school, failed to reach bigs)
First Round:  Josh Cenate (high school, failed to reach bigs)
First Round:  Scott Rice (high school, failed to reach bigs)

2000
First Round:  Beau Hale (college, failed to reach bigs)
Third Round:  Richard Bartlett (high school, failed to reach bigs)

2001
First Round:  Chris Smith (college, failed to reach bigs)
Third Round:  Dave Crouthers (college, failed to reach bigs)
 
2002
First Round:  Adam Loewen (high school, tragic cup of coffee/journeyman)

2003 (both college pitchers)
Second Round:  Brian Finch (failed to reach bigs)
Third Round:  Chris Ray (contributing big leaguer, currently hurt, long-term prospects uncertain)

2004
First Round:  Wade Townsend, college, did not sign

2005
First Round:  Garrett Olson, college, currently on big league roster and getting pounded, long-term prospects uncertain
Third Round:  Brandon Erbe, high school, pitching in Frederick rotation

2006
First Round:  Pedro Beato, college, pitching in Frederick rotation
Third Round:  Zach Britton, high school, pitching in Delmarva rotation

2007
No pitchers drafted in first three rounds

2008
First Round:  Brian Matusz, college, not yet signed

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Let's summarize.  The Orioles hit the the jackpot with Mussina in 1990.  30 other pitchers have been drafted in the first three rounds since 1990 and no one else on the list has come close to reaching major league star level since (though obviously it's too early to conclude anything definitive about the last few years worth of selections).  Beyond Mussina, Jay Powell had the next best career.  Chris Ray's probably the next most productive big leaguer and he doesn't have a single full major league season under his belt.  The number of total flops--because of injury, ineffectiveness or both--is absolutely breathtaking:  from 1990 through 2003, 15 of the 23 pitchers selected in the first three rounds failed to reach the big leagues.  21 of the 23 were no better than major league journeymen.

Bad luck, bad drafting, bad development or a combination of the above?  You decide.

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