A lot of speculation centers around what the O's are looking at for a long term fix. Despite the hiring of Andy MacPhail and everything that O's fans hope that it means as far as the involvement of Peter Angelos in the micromanaging of the ballclub, what does the future hold when the farm isn't producing at the hoped-for levels of a couple of seasons ago?

The farm is rated somewhere between lower-middle to the bottom of the barrel, depending on whom you're talking to. However you determine the viability of the system, there has certainly been a regression from last season's optimism, as injuries and poor play have clouded the perception of a number of O's farmhands.

Let's assume that the team is as bad as they are currently playing; a promising starting rotation is under pressure from an anemic offense and a bullpen that is part off its game and part overrated prior to the season. What are the high points of the club?

The Starters - Assuming Steve Trachsel will return to journeyman level over the course of his remaining time with the team and that Erik Bedard is proving to not be the Second Coming but instead just a solid starter, that leaves two big surprises and one enigma. Big surprises like Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Burres will often break your heart the following season and in years to come (see: Small, Aaron; Chen, Bruce), but these two have a few things going for them that most flash-in-the-pan types don't, like raw talent, youth, past performance dogged by injury, and quality coaching - so I'm going to give them both the benefit of the doubt and pencil them in for the future. Danny Cabrera and Adam Loewen can join the party as well, and Hayden Penn and Garret Olsen and Jim Hoey and several others provide hope for the future.

Position Players - Well, you've got Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis. Ramon Hernandez and Melvin Mora will be around; so will Miguel Tejada if the club can't get rid of him. Jay Gibbons will be around, too. Everyone else is probably gone, and of this group, only Roberts and Markakis are mainstays young enough to help the club and Roberts will probably walk at the end of his contract.

Bullpen - Well, you've got Walker and Bradford, two decent pieces to the puzzle. Chris Ray is a shaky closer probably ticketed for a setup role. Everyone else is expendable.

So the pitching situation looks pretty good, the hitting not so good.

The last time the O's really blew up the team was 1988. What happened then? There was a magic season in 1989, and then a dropoff in 1990 and a bigger one in 1991 before the ship was righted for a six-year run of respectability and playoff hopes. Let's see what the O's had when the smoke cleared...

The Starters - Jeff Ballard, J.J. Bautista, and Jay Tibbs were the young guns for the '88 Birds. All three were held over for the '89 squad; Tibbs got off to a great start but suffered a career-curtailing injury a handful of starts in; Ballard was the 'ace' of the '89 team, though he too battled injury and lack of a strikeout pitch. Bautista hung around, but never panned out despite better-than-average stuff. In 1989 Bob Milaki and Pete Harnisch burst onto the scene while journeyman Dave Schmidt moved in from the bullpen after Tibbs went down and late-season find local-boy-makes-good Dave Johnson surprised everyone by pitching well at the tender age of 29. So both the current and '88 teams had some pitching pieces in place, though I'd give the edge to the current squad.

Position Players - Mickey Tettleton was the big find of '88, picked up off the scrap heap at 27. Eddie Murray was traded in the off-season (for Phil Bradley and Brian Holton, basically), Billy Ripken possessed a scrappy demeanor and not much else, Cal Ripken was a star, minor-leaguer Craig Worthington was poised to take over at third from vet Rick Schu; Joe Orsulak, another scrap heap acquisition, was a solid outfielder, and the team traded veteran starting pitcher Mike Boddicker for outfield prospect Brady Anderson and pitcher Curt Schilling. Fred Lynn was also traded for catching prospect Chris Hoiles. Hopefuls Jim Traber, Pete Stanicek, and Larry Sheets all regressed in '88.

One thing that stands out is how much more the '88 O's had to work with to improve than does the current club. Murray, Lynn, and Boddicker were still valuable commodities. The current club has no one to trade of real value except Tejada, and that's questionable.

Bullpen - Mark Williamson was a solid bullpen guy. Mike Morgan was traded for outfield prospect Mike Devereaux. Superstar closer Gregg Olson got a cup of coffee in 1988 before tearing up the league in 1989. Brian Holton, a journeyman, was picked up in the Murray deal.

When we compare the 'rebuilt' O's of 1989 to the current team, it looks as though the current starting is better, though the '89 group also had a lot to choose from, including wunderkind draft pick Big Ben McDonald and prospect Curt Schilling. The big difference is in the position players. Thanks to tradeable pieces, the O's set themselves up for the future by picking up their left fielder, their catcher, and their center fielders for the future. Their current catcher and next-year first sacker Randy Milligan were both picked up for nothing, and their rookie third baseman would win one ROY award, though his career was short-lived. Throw in a devastating closer, and the future for the '89 club looks better than the potential for the current club.

In 1990, Steve Finley hit the big club, only to be traded alongside Schilling and Harnisch in the Glenn Davis deal (it boggles the mind to think what the O's might have been if this deal had never been made). Sam Horn was picked up as a DH, Phil Bradley was traded at the deadline for Ron Kittle as the O's tried a playoff push (it backfired), and Leo Gomez made his first appearance at third base. Bob Melvin came on as a solid backup catcher. Pitching was the bigger reason for the club's failure to build on the previous season; Jeff Ballard was hurt, and Harnisch, Johnson, and Milacki all regressed. Ben McDonald did appear to be a star in the making, and young studs Jose Mesa and Curt Schilling provided quality backup to Olson and the rest of the bullpen. though the team didn't do as well in the end, it did continue to improve overall.

1991 was plagued with issues from Opening Day. Glenn Davis and Dwight Evans had come aboard, one via trade, the other through free agency. Dewey would help the club, but the health issues that had caused the Red Sox to not resign him resurfaced again and again. Still, Devo, Cal, Moose Milligan and others put up decent seasons...the real problem was the pitching.

The O's traded Mickey Tettleton because they could no longer afford the Froot Loops Kid and they had rookie Chris Hoiles ready to take over. The bad new is the pitcher they traded him for - Opening Day starter Jeff Robinson - was a disaster both on that day and for the rest of the season. Mike Mussina's appearance the last two months was the only bright spot; Milacki, McDonald, and Mesa all had off-seasons as starters, and Dave Johnson and Jeff Ballard were done. The bullpen featured the debut of Arthur Rhodes and a couple of other guys who would help for awhile in Jim Poole and Todd Frohwirth.

So by 1992, the rebuild was complete. Mike Mussina joined the rotation, and McDonald surged back. Rick Sutcliffe was added for depth and leadership, and he responded with a solid year. Arthur Rhodes was effective as both a starter and reliever, and Alan Mills joined the O's bullpen as a gift from the Yankees. Mark McLemore was picked up as a cheap free agent, and minor-league players David Segui and Chito Martinez chipped in, as well.

So when you compare what the organization did from 1988 to 1992 to turn around the club's fortunes, some patterns emerge.

The club traded vets for really good prospects. This isn't likely to happen this time around; first the O's don't have the high-quality prospects to trade, and even if they did, clubs are less likely to make that sort of trade for fear of being burned.

The club raided the waiver wire and took advantage of small trades...Mickey Tettleton, Randy Milligan, Sam Horn, Joe Orsulak, Chito Martinez, Bob Melvin, Tim Hulett, Jim Poole, Todd Frohwirth and Alan Mills were all 'small pickups.'

The club used the farm to really help themselves. Worthington, Gomez, Finley, McDonald, Olson, Mussina, Rhodes, and other pitchers all came though the system as Oriole farmhands.

Can the current team mirror the success of the '88 group over a four-year period? They don't appear to be starting with the same advantages as the 33rd Street club.

We'll have to wait and see.